Stock valuation
Date: Saturday, August 05 @ 22:50:22 CDT
Topic: Investing



There are several methods used to value companies and their stocks. They try to give an estimate of their fair value, by using fundamental economic criteria. This theoretical valuation has to be perfected with market criteria, as the final purpose is to determine potential market prices.

Fundamental criteria (fair value)
The most theoretically sound stock valuation method is called income valuation or the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, involves discounting the profits (dividends, earnings, or cash flows) the stock will bring to the stockholder in the foreseeable future, and a final value on disposition. The discount rate normally has to include a risk premium which is commonly based on the capital asset pricing model.

The Gordon model or Gordon's growth model is the best known of a class of discounted dividend models. It assumes that dividends will increase at a constant growth rate (less than the discount rate) forever. The valuation is given by the formula:

where P is the estimated price, D is the last dividend paid, k is the discount rate, and g is the growth rate of the dividends.

The P/E method is perhaps the most commonly used valuation method in the stock brokerage industry. By using comparison firms, a target price/earnings (or P/E) ratio is selected for the company, and then the future earnings of the company are estimated. The valuation's fair price is simply estimated earnings times target P/E. This model is essentially the same model as Gordon's model, if k-g is estimated as the dividend payout ratio (D/E) divided by the target P/E ratio..

Market criteria (potential price)
Some feel that if the stock is listed in a well organized stock market, with a large volume of transactions, the listed price will be close to the estimated fair value. This is called the efficient market hypothesis.

On the other hand, studies made in the field of behavioral finance tend to show that deviations from the fair price are rather common, and sometimes quite large.

Thus, in addition to fundamental economic criteria, market criteria also have to be taken into account market-based valuation. Valuing a stock is not only to estimate its fair value, but also to determine its potential price range, taking into account market behavior aspects. One of the behavioral valuation tools is the stock image, a coefficient that bridges the theoretical fair value and the market price.


This article is licensed under the GNU Free Documentation License. It uses material from the Wikipedia article "Stock valuation".







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